Litecoin (LTC) has emerged as one of many uncommon winners within the ongoing cryptocurrency market meltdown led by the FTX alternate’s collapse.
LTC value outperforms BTC, ET
The 2011-born altcoin rallied practically 16% month-to-date (MTD) to achieve $62.75 on Nov. 22, outperforming its prime rivals, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), which lo roughly 25% and 30%, respectively, in the identical interval.
LTC/USD day by day value chart. Source: TradingView
Furthermore, the LTC/BTC value additionally rallied to new heights, gaining 50% in November to ascertain a brand new yearly excessive of 0.003970 BTC on Nov. 22.
As Cointelegraph reported, Litecoin diverged from the broader cryptocurrency market downtrend earlier this month with its halving slated for August 2023. LTC has additionally acquired an endorsement from none apart from Michael Saylor for being a Bitcoin-like “digital commodity.”
Michael Saylor says #Litecoin can also be probably a digital commodity like Bitcoin: pic.twitter.com/7N19IpxtSe
— Altcoin Daily (@AltcoinDailyio) November 18, 2022
Nonetheless, indicators of bullish exhaustion are rising.
Litecoin value fractal hints at 50% correction
Litecoin’s rally versus Bitcoin has made the LTC/BTC pai overvalued, in keeping with its weekly relative power index (RSI) studying.
Notably, LTC/BTC’s weekly RSI, which measures the pair’s velocity and alter of value actions, surged above 70 on Nov. 22. An RSI studying above 70 is taken into account overbought, which many conventional analysts see as an indication of an impending bearish reversal.
Historically, Litecoin’s overbought RSI readings versus Bitcoin have been adopted by main value corrections. For occasion, in April 2021, the LTC/BTC RSI’s climb above 70 met with a powerful selloff response, finally pushing the pair down by 75% to 0.001716 BTC by June 2022.
Similarly, an overbought RSI in April 2019 led to a 70% LTC/BTC value correction by December 2019.
The identical RSI fractal now hints at Litecoin’s risk of present process a 50% wipeout versus Bitcoin if coupled with LTC/BTC’s multi-year descending channel sample, as proven under.
LTC/BTC weekly value chart. Source: TradingView
TypicalLTC/BTC turns overbought after hitting the channel’s higher trendline, which follows up with a correction towards the decrease trendline.
As a consequence, the pair dangers a drop to or under 0.001797 BTC by December 2022 if the fractal repeats, down greater than 50% from the present value ranges.
Conversely, a decisive breakout above the higher trendline may have LTC/BTC check its 200-week exponential transferring common (200-week EMA; the blue wave) at 0.005319 BTC, up 30% from present value ranges, as the following upside goal.
LTC/USD pair “bear flag”
Litecoin eyes an identical value crash versus the U.S. greenback because it paints a bear flag sample on the weekly charts.
Related: Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest provides extra Bitcoin publicity as GBTC, Coinbase inventory hit new lows
Bear flags are bearish continuation patterns that seem when the value consolidates greater inside a parallel, ascending channel vary after a powerful transfer decrease (known as flagpole). They resolve after the value breaks under the decrease trendline and falls by as a lot because the flagpole’s peak.
LTC/USD weekly value chart. Source: TradingView
LTC has been buying and selling contained in the bear flag vary, eyeing a breakdown under its decrease trendline assist of round $55. The bear flag draw back goal is round $32.40 if it breaks decisively under the stated assist.
In different phrases, a 50% decline by December 2022.
This article doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Every funding and buying and selling transfer includes threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a choice.